More than one-third of regular smokers and recent ex-smokers will smoke more cigarettes, switch back to smoking, or purchase illegal vapes if single-use vapes and flavours are banned, new research has found.

The research, by the Independent British Vape Trade Association (IBVTA), suggests retailers will see disposable vape sales shift to tobacco products or lose potential sales to illicit devices.

The research, which included responses from 2,000 adults in January 2024, has been carried out in the wake of prime minister Rishi Sunak revealing plans to crack down on youth vaping. Proposals included a generational tobacco ban and restricting the flavours and appearance of vapes to make them less appealing to children.

There has also been speculation that the government may slap a 25% tax on vaping products, as the industry awaits a response to the vaping consultation that closed on 6 December.

The IBVTA said the government should “recognise the role” that single-use vape devices and flavours play as a smoking cessation tool, and that a ban ‘risks jeopardising quit efforts’, missing the ‘smoke-free 2030 target’ and savings of a possible £500m a year if half of England’s adult smokers vaped instead of smoked.

Chair of the IBVTA Marcus Saxton said: “There is a very real risk that if the government introduces overly restrictive measures, such as bans on single use vapes or flavours, it will have a clear negative impact by making it harder for smokers to use vaping to quit.”

Saxton added that retailers may see a “huge boost” in demand for tobacco products from consumers if there is a ban.

“Now is not the time to unduly punish and overregulate the legitimate [vaping] sector,” he said. “That will simply benefit those pushing illegal and unregulated products and pose a clear risk to those looking to use vaping to help them stop smoking. We stand ready to work with government to implement a proportionate regulatory regime.”

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