A record 83% of smokers admitted to buying illicit tobacco — not subject to UK tax — compared to 71% in 2016. This ranges from lowest region (79% in Wales) to the highest region (92% in London).

The results have been published by the Tobacco Manufacturers’ Association (TMA), from it latest Anti-Illicit Trade Survey, which questioned 12,000 UK-based smokers.

Also, almost three-quarters (74%) of smokers bought cheap untaxed tobacco from ‘under the counter’ retail sources at least once a month, while more than one-fifth of respondents (21%) surveyed claimed to routinely buy cheap untaxed tobacco through the internet and social media sites such as Facebook.

TMA suggested that this shows the impact of repeated tax rises, which are ‘pushing consumers towards buying cheaper untaxed illegal tobacco’, referencing the largest tobacco excise increase on record in 2023, which saw a combined £1.61 increase on a 20-pack of cigarettes and £3.96 on 30-grams of rolling tobacco.

Based on results, TMA has reported that the government’s generational ban will have ‘severe and long-lasting repercussions’ due to being pushed underground. The majority (62%) of respondents do not think a generational ban on tobacco will be enforceable.  

Retailers face £10,000 fine and bans over illicit tobacco

The new Labour government is said to be deciding whether to commit to introducing a ‘one-off increase’ of £2.00 per 100 cigarettes or 50 grams of rolling tobacco in this year’s budget on 30 October. The increase was announced by the last Conservative government, and was set to take effect from October 2026.

Rupert Lewis, director of the TMA, said: “The illegal tobacco market in the UK is well-established and is growing in size. The government estimates that it has cost UK-taxpayers over £52.8bn in lost taxes since 2000, but we fear this is an underestimate. This is much needed money that could be spent on fixing public services is instead lining the pockets of organised criminals.”

Lewis added that the government is turning “a blind eye” to the “threat of illegal tobacco”.

“A Home Office funded report from the National Business Crime Centre published in July, stated that ‘with the increase in tax on tobacco products and the proposed generational ban, the demand for stolen and counterfeit tobacco is set to increase dramatically,” Lewis continued.

“This assessment confirms the view of many retailers and members of law enforcement, that the only beneficiaries of the roll-out of a generational ban will be organised criminals, as in due course the whole UK tobacco market is pushed underground into their hands.

“The new government needs to listen to retailers and not make the same mistake that Rishi Sunak made. The consequences of ever increasing the cost of legal tobacco and implementing a generational ban will result in major unintended consequences which will have a sustained impact across the UK for years to come.”

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