The generational smoking ban could deprive the average tobacco-selling store of an estimated £2,626, new analysis suggests. Better Retailing reached the approximate figure by analysing the latest population, smoking prevalence in 18-year-olds, average cigarette consumption, average cigarette price, government estimates on tobacco retailer numbers and illicit trade market share figures. The generational smoking ban is the government’s plan to increase the smoking age by one year, every year.
The Better Retailing analysis suggests annual tobacco revenue for the average store will be more than £10,000 lower than today by the time the age limit is 22, compared with if current trends continued. That’s equivalent to nearly two packs less sold every day in every store.
The government proposed the generational smoking ban in October 2023. It would mean anybody aged 14 in 2023 would “never legally be sold a cigarette”. The policy would achieve this by raising the age limit by one year, every year, from 2027. The full policy, impact assessment and other details are yet to be confirmed.
Wide-ranging impact
The change would probably affect much more than just tobacco revenue. Store processes, training, footfall and sales of related categories such as vaping will also likely be affected. Retailers and tobacco manufacturers have raised fears the age increase would fuel the illicit trade in tobacco.
“Tobacco remains an important category for more than 70% of convenience retailers when it comes to generating footfall in store,” said Sarah Connor, communications director at JTI UK, referencing a recent survey of shop owners conducted by JTI.
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“A quarter of stores said 50% or more of their total revenue was from customers who purchased tobacco and other non-tobacco related items in the same basket.
“The survey also found that 62% of retailers believed the generational ban will be costly to their businesses in terms of implementation.”
Timeframes
One relief for retailers is that it may take some time for the generational smoking ban to come into effect. One policy expert predicted: “I expect the policy to be announced in late January to mid-February. Then, it needs to be debated and passed into law.
“Those it affects will reach 18 in around 2027. There will be an election going on during all this, meaning the outcome is far from certain, especially as New Zealand – the first country to propose the annual age increases – has dropped the policy, leaving [prime minster Rishi] Sunak to go it alone.”
An Imperial Tobacco spokesperson explained: “The generational smoking ban will have a gradual impact on legal tobacco sales in the UK from 1 January 2027, when those born on or after 1 January 2009 begin to turn 18.”
Read a comprehensive news special on the tobacco age increase, and how it will affect convenience stores, in the 26 January edition of RN.
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