Shop-owner confidence of brighter sales and profit ahead has plummeted, with a 22% drop in the number of retailers optimistic about their future. 

The quarterly Sentiment Tracker survey by Better Retailing’s publisher, Newtrade Media, asked nearly 250 newsagents and convenience store owners about their performance. 

The proportion of stores with profits down year on year has increased from 52% to 64% in the past six months. Retailers’ answers on sales and store footfall revealed a similar decline. 

Looking to the future, the proportion forecasting greater profits this time next year fell from 46% to 36% across the same period. 

Nearly a quarter said the future of their shop was “at risk”, with one in 20 shop owners be-lieving their store will close “within a year” unless there is a substantial change in market conditions. 

A further one in 10 shop owners are “actively looking to sell because my business is at risk”. 

What’s behind the doom and gloom? 

On top of recent policy-driven cost rises, unlike for supermarkets, Kantar data shows the average shop owner’s weekly takings have fallen for several years, cutting the share of all grocery spending going through independent shops’ tills to record lows. 

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When asked what was behind supermarkets and discounters grabbing a greater share at their expense, the Sentiment Tracker showed shop owners blame external factors. 

The situation was most commonly attributed to the cost-of-living crisis and to a growing “price gap” between supermarkets and independents. 

Agreeing with the latter, Select & Save managing director Kam Sanghera recently described a growing “disconnect” between shop owners and their partners in the supply chain. 

He said wholesalers were increasingly “dictating” terms to stores, and brands are “neglecting” independents in favour of supermarkets. 

The Sentiment Tracker found 45% of shop owners are now not satisfied with their treatment by suppliers, up 4% in six months. 

While a third said declining traditional categories such as tobacco and newspapers was partly responsible, only half as many blamed a lack of investment by independent shop owners in new categories. 

This view is different to that of analysts. Scott Annan, who works with many of the world’s best store owners, told RN that without “significant investment” in food to go, fresh and chilled, many local shops “will find it harder to compete”. 

Despite the market share drop coinciding with the rollout of new loyalty schemes in supermarkets, only one in five shop owners felt a lack of similar tools in their stores was partly behind their falling share. 

Even the weather last year was more commonly blamed for the market share drop than any factor within independent shop owners’ control. 

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